Dispersal Patterns and Influence of Air Travel During the Global Expansion of SARS-CoV-2 Variants of Concern

The Alpha, Beta and Gamma SARS-CoV-2 Variants of Concern (VOCs) co-circulated globally during 2020-21, fueling waves of infections. They were displaced by Delta during a third wave worldwide in 2021, in turn displaced by Omicron in late 2021. In this study, we use phylogenetic and phylogeographic methods to reconstruct the dispersal patterns of VOCs worldwide. We find that source-sink dynamics varied substantially by VOC, and identify countries that acted as global and regional hubs of dissemination. We demonstrate a declining role of presumed origin countries of VOCs to their global dispersal, estimating that India contributed <15% of Delta exports and South Africa <1-2% of Omicron dispersal. We estimate that >80 countries had received introductions of Omicron within 100 days of emergence, associated with accelerating passenger air travel and higher transmissibility. Our study highlights the rapid dispersal of highly transmissible variants with implications for genomic surveillance along the hierarchical airline network. Graphical Data analysis clarifies that dispersal of SARS-CoV-2 variants from their sites of initial detection was related to the amount of global air travel at the time of the variant's emergence, and that travel volume through "hub” sites distinct from the site of emergence was a key driver of variant spread.

Managing and assembling population-scale data streams, tools and workflows to plan for future pandemics within the INFORM-Africa Consortium

The article focuses on the establishment of the INFORM-Africa Research Hub, which aims to use big data from South Africa and Nigeria to improve pandemic preparedness. Topics include the investigation of SARS-CoV-2 transmission pathways, the impact of movement-based restrictions on COVID-19 risk factors, and the interplay between SARS-CoV-2 and HIV in Africa.

Evaluation of miniaturized Illumina DNA preparation protocols for SARS-CoV-2 whole genome sequencing.

The global pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2 has increased the demand for scalable sequencing and diagnostic methods, especially for genomic surveillance. Although next-generation sequencing has enabled large-scale genomic surveillance, the ability to sequence SARS-CoV-2 in some settings has been limited by the cost of sequencing kits and the time-consuming preparations of sequencing libraries. We compared the sequencing outcomes, cost and turn-around times obtained using the standard Illumina DNA Prep kit protocol to three modified protocols with fewer clean-up steps and different reagent volumes (full volume, half volume, one-tenth volume). We processed a single run of 47 samples under each protocol and compared the yield and mean sequence coverage. The sequencing success rate and quality for the four different reactions were as follows: the full reaction was 98.2%, the one-tenth reaction was 98.0%, the full rapid reaction was 97.5% and the half-reaction, was 97.1%. As a result, uniformity of sequence quality indicated that libraries were not affected by the change in protocol. The cost of sequencing was reduced approximately seven-fold and the time taken to prepare the library was reduced from 6.5 hours to 3 hours. The sequencing results obtained using the miniaturised volumes showed comparability to the results obtained using full volumes as described by the manufacturer. The adaptation of the protocol represents a lower-cost, streamlined approach for SARS-CoV-2 sequencing, which can be used to produce genomic data quickly and more affordably, especially in resource-constrained settings.

Molecular Epidemiology and Diversity of SARS-CoV-2 in Ethiopia, 2020-2022.

Ethiopia is the second most populous country in Africa and the sixth most affected by COVID-19 on the continent. Despite having experienced five infection waves, >499,000 cases, and ~7500 COVID-19-related deaths as of January 2023, there is still no detailed genomic epidemiological report on the introduction and spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Ethiopia. In this study, we reconstructed and elucidated the COVID-19 epidemic dynamics. Specifically, we investigated the introduction, local transmission, ongoing evolution, and spread of SARS-CoV-2 during the first four infection waves using 353 high-quality near-whole genomes sampled in Ethiopia. Our results show that whereas viral introductions seeded the first wave, subsequent waves were seeded by local transmission. The B.1.480 lineage emerged in the first wave and notably remained in circulation even after the emergence of the Alpha variant. The B.1.480 was outcompeted by the Delta variant. Notably, Ethiopia's lack of local sequencing capacity was further limited by sporadic, uneven, and insufficient sampling that limited the incorporation of genomic epidemiology in the epidemic public health response in Ethiopia. These results highlight Ethiopia's role in SARS-CoV-2 dissemination and the urgent need for balanced, near-real-time genomic sequencing.

The evolving SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Africa: Insights from rapidly expanding genomic surveillance.

Investment in severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) sequencing in Africa over the past year has led to a major increase in the number of sequences that have been generated and used to track the pandemic on the continent, a number that now exceeds 100,000 genomes. Our results show an increase in the number of African countries that are able to sequence domestically and highlight that local sequencing enables faster turnaround times and more-regular routine surveillance. Despite limitations of low testing proportions, findings from this genomic surveillance study underscore the heterogeneous nature of the pandemic and illuminate the distinct dispersal dynamics of variants of concern-particularly Alpha, Beta, Delta, and Omicron-on the continent. Sustained investment for diagnostics and genomic surveillance in Africa is needed as the virus continues to evolve while the continent faces many emerging and reemerging infectious disease threats. These investments are crucial for pandemic preparedness and response and will serve the health of the continent well into the 21st century.

Emergence of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron lineages BA.4 and BA.5 in South Africa.

Three lineages (BA.1, BA.2 and BA.3) of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Omicron variant of concern predominantly drove South Africa's fourth Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) wave. We have now identified two new lineages, BA.4 and BA.5, responsible for a fifth wave of infections. The spike proteins of BA.4 and BA.5 are identical, and similar to BA.2 except for the addition of 69-70 deletion (present in the Alpha variant and the BA.1 lineage), L452R (present in the Delta variant), F486V and the wild-type amino acid at Q493. The two lineages differ only outside of the spike region. The 69-70 deletion in spike allows these lineages to be identified by the proxy marker of S-gene target failure, on the background of variants not possessing this feature. BA.4 and BA.5 have rapidly replaced BA.2, reaching more than 50% of sequenced cases in South Africa by the first week of April 2022. Using a multinomial logistic regression model, we estimated growth advantages for BA.4 and BA.5 of 0.08 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.08-0.09) and 0.10 (95% CI: 0.09-0.11) per day, respectively, over BA.2 in South Africa. The continued discovery of genetically diverse Omicron lineages points to the hypothesis that a discrete reservoir, such as human chronic infections and/or animal hosts, is potentially contributing to further evolution and dispersal of the virus.

COVID-19: Impact on the HIV and Tuberculosis Response, Service Delivery, and Research in South Africa.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: To describe how mitigation measures against COVID-19 have impacted HIV and TB research in South Africa. RECENT FINDINGS: South Africa has the highest number of COVID-19 (34%) cases in Africa, accounting for 43% of all reported COVID-19-related deaths on the continent. The country accounts for 20% of all people living with HIV and ranked third in the world for new TB infections in 2019. While South Africa's investments in its HIV and TB responses enabled it to pivot rapidly to respond to the emerging COVID-19 epidemic, it negatively impacted the HIV and TB response through temporary suspension of research, diversion of key resources for HIV and TB control, and patient access to health care facilities; the full extent of this has yet to emerge. Success in integrating responses to the colliding epidemics could potentially enhance survival outcomes and ensure gains made to date in HIV and TB are not reversed and we stay on track toward achieving the UN 2030 Sustainable Development Goals.

COVID-19 in Africa: Catalyzing change for sustainable development.

Salim Abdool Karim, Segenet Kelemu and Cheryl Baxter discuss COVID-19 impacts and adaptations in Africa.